A story with tens of thousands of articles.

A story with tens of thousands of articles.
life and death, blessing and cursing, from the main character in the hands of readers.

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Why you should start linking your pre and post purchase data today

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Why you should start linking your pre and post purchase data today

  Ryan Farley  Analytics, Marketing
In the loan industry – where I first cut my teeth in marketing and analytics –  it’s typical that customers who actually read terms and conditions before hitting the ‘apply’ button are less risky.  By less risky, I mean less likely to default on their loan.
For the lending institution, this is a big freaking deal.  First of all, they have to decide whether to approve this borrower or not.  Secondly, they have to decide which line of credit to extend, at what interest rate.  That, combined with their assessment of the borrower’s riskiness, dictates capital requirements. At an aggregate level, we’re talking billions of dollars here.  All this is driven by a few click and scroll events on whether a person read terms or not.
So what’s my point?  Well for one, be sure to take 5 minutes to read (or pretend to read) the terms when applying for a credit card.
But the bigger point is, pre-purchase behavior can be highly correlated with post-purchase behavior, and make really freaking big differences.
The problem: very few startups actually link both sides
Most early stage companies have trouble setting up analytics period.  They eitheraren’t using them correctly or they are plain setup wrong.
But at one point or another, a company will get it’s act together and setup a proper funnel, typically using an out of the box tool like Google Analytics or Mixpanel, and will start hopefully A/B testing, and optimize for conversion rate.  Unfortunately, that’s typically where it stops.
And while these tools are great, they typically offer no way to connect pre and post purchase behavior.  The following are two very real, and very common instances where failing to link up this data can cost your company big time.
Example #1: You overspend on paid acquisition
Let’s suppose you’re running growth for a startup that’s just starting to get traction.  After a bunch of excel finagling you come up to the conclusion that each customer will be worth $28 after year one.  You decide that you want to target a 1 year breakeven (this is a whole debate in it of itself we can save for another post).
After a month of testing and tweaking, you think you have 4 viable channels, as all of them are $28 or lower.  Here are their costs to acquire (CAC), broken down by channel:
Cost to acquire by channel
One year down the road, you plot your cumulative LTV curve, and turns out your initial estimate was correct, your 1 year LTV is in fact around $28.
Screen Shot 2016-06-04 at 2.58.08 PM
Everything looks good right?
  • Adwords – your most expensive channel – is breaking even, and you know you can easily optimize that and/or adjust your bids if need be.
  • Facebook and Twitter are both below your CPA by $2, suggesting room to bid a tiny bit more
  • Your cheesy SXSW Gimmicks yielded the lowest CAC, so you gear up to tour nerd-fests around the country.
All seems good – right?
But suppose we decide to break these LTV curves down by channel, and see something like this:
LTV curves by channel
This tells a very different story
  • Facebook customers are crushing it with a $38 1 year LTV, compared to a $26 CAC.  You can afford to spend more!
  • Adwords customers are pretty darn close to breakeven, so you’re probably bidding right.  Though it appears as if LTV is increasing, at a fairly linear pace, so you may even be able to increase your spend a bit
  • Twitter customers LTV plateaus off at $24, under your cost per acquisition.  You definitely didn’t hit 1 year breakeven, and you may never break even
  • Your SXSW gimmicks were actually an utter failure.  They plateaued around month 9 with an LTV of $20, and will probably never break even.
While in aggregate it appears as if you’re doing well, when you break it down by channel you’re missing out on some channels and overspending on others.
If you never connect pre-purchase data (the customers’ source) to post-purchase activity (the customers’ spend), you’d never know that two of your channels are flawed, and one you’re missing out on.
This is a fairly straightforward example, and I debated even including it because I feel like most people understand this concept intuitively.  However, very few companies I know practice it, especially consumer companies that don’t use an out of the box CRM.
In case this example was too basic, let’s take a look at a more nuanced example.
Example #2: Losing predictive power
About when we raised our Series A round of financing last spring, I was interested in digging into increasing retention.
Fortunately, I knew of a fellow Techstars company called Data Robot, which allows people like me (non-data scientists) to build machine learning algorithms pretty easily.
data-robot-predict-churn
To build your model, you just upload a tabular CSV file that contains whatever variable you want to predict output and whatever variables you think might be correlated.
In my case, the predicted output was whether the person had canceled during the last month, and my inputs were all sorts of things: lot size, price, average rating, NPS score, location, lead source, whether they joined via our app or online, and sorts of activity metrics.
Data Robot then builds a bunch of machine learning models for you, and recommends the best to use based on a variety of metrics.  It also does a univariate analysis on your dataset, and shows which variables play the biggest role in the outputs.  I won’t get too into the details here, but it’s a pretty cool tool.
Turns out the data we had collected actually had a good amount of predictive power.
Creating this model, I learned a few things:
  1. You never know what factors are going to matter – turns out that people who spell out “street” vs abbreviating it “st” are more likely to churn…weird.  Be sure to collect everything possible.
  2. You don’t need a ginormous dataset to start using predictive analytics – I always sort of assumed you needed to be at Pinterest-scale to warrant doing data science.  Yet, there we were, barely a series-A stage company, making models that had a real impact.
  3. Data Robot is really freaking cool – seriously, you should check it out.  In a night a guy who slept through stats class made a real machine learning model
But…potentially the biggest lesson I learned was what this whole post is about: pre-purchase behavior ended up being some of the biggest predictors of churn.  At this point in time, I had to hack the two sides together, and thus missed out on a lot of the pre-purchase data.  It was this point in time when I realized we needed to make the investment into connecting pre-purchase and post-purchase data together.
Retention isn’t the only thing you can use predictive analytics to predict – depending on your business, you might want to model upsell potential, free trial conversions, or even support burden.  And there’s a good chance the pre-purchase data will be valuable – so make sure you’re collecting and linking it.
How to link your data together in a usable form
First, you have to realize how important it is, and decide to make the investment.  If you’re early stage, you may not think it’s worth the investment since your volume is so low.  But once you get traction, that point will hit faster than you think, so make a plan on when to make the investment.
We decided to invest in a solution called Fivetran.  This is an incredible tool that synchs data from third party sources like Google Analytics, Mixpanel, Salesforce, Zendesk and your own databases, and puts it nice and cleanly into a Redshift database.  From there we can link together the sources and access via SQL code or via Tableau.  The important thing is ahead of time, to make sure that you have the database columns to join all these datasets together.
Whatever you do, be sure to link your pre-purchase and post-purchase data together, or you’ll one day regret it.


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Need a professional writer? Fiction and non-fiction? contact richard.nata@yahoo.co.id

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My STARTUP :

Let me introduce myself. My name is Richard Nata. I am an author, novelist, blogger and ghost writer. My articles, including short stories have been published in magazines and newspapers since 1994. I have written a lot of books, both fiction and non-fiction. So I was a professional in the field of writing, both fiction and non-fiction.

I was born in Jakarta, August 17, 1968.  

In 1988, at the age of 20 years, I started working as an accounting staff. Age 24 years has occupied the position of Finance Manager. Age 26 years as a General Manager.

In 1994, my articles published in magazines and tabloids.

In 1997, I wrote a book entitled "Buku Pintar Mencari Kerja". This book is reprinted as much as 8 times. Through the book, the authors successfully helped tens of thousands of people get jobs at once successful in their careers. They were also successful when moving to work in other places.

In 1998, I started investing in shares on Bursa Efek Indonesia (Indonesia stock exchange). As a result of investing in the stock market then I can provide consulting services for companies that want to go public in Indonesia stock exchange.

more information :
1. IPO KAN PERUSAHAAN ANDA DI BEI, TRIK TERCEPAT MENJADIKAN ANDA SEORANG KONGLOMERAT. brand, ideas, story, style, my life: IPO KAN PERUSAHAAN ANDA DI BEI, TRIK TERCEPAT MENJADIKAN ANDA SEORANG KONGLOMERAT.
2. JASA KONSULTAN GO PUBLIC ( IPO ) DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA. 


BUKU PINTAR DAPAT KERJA GAJI TINGGI PINDAH KERJA GAJI SEMAKIN TINGGI made by retyping the book BEST SELLER of the author, entitled “Buku Pintar Mencari Kerja”. This ebook available on google play.

In 2015, I had the idea of a startup company where the readers can decide for themselves the next story. WASN'T THIS A GREAT IDEA? IF can be realized WILL BE WORTH billions USD. Because CAN PRODUCE FOR MILLIONS OF DOLLARS even tens of millions USD annually. 

In theory, in 10-20 years into the future, my startup income, amounting to hundreds of million USD annually can be obtained easily. AND IF FOLLOWED BY MANY COMPANIES IN THE WHOLE WORLD WILL THEN BE A NEW INDUSTRIAL worth trillions USD. 

To be honest. Currently I'm not having a lot of money. So I start marketing my startup with blogspot.

My STARTUP :


A story with millions of choices in it - looking investor like you.



Try to imagine this. When you're reading a story on the web or blog, you are given two choices. You can choose the next story based on your own choice. After selecting then you can continue reading the story. Shortly afterwards you will be presented back to the 2 other options. The next choice is up to you. Then you continue the story you are reading. After that you will be faced again with 2 choices. So onwards. The more stories you read so the more options you have taken.


If you feel curious then you can re-read the story by changing your selection. Then you will see a different story with the story that you have read previously. The question now is why is this so? Because the storyline will be varying according to your choice. 


I, as the author is planning to make tens of thousands of articles with millions of choices in it. With tens of thousands of articles then you like to see a show of your favorite series on TV for several years. The difference is while watching your favorite TV series, then you can not change the story. Meanwhile, if you read this story then you can alter the way the story according to your own choice.

You might say like this. Sounds like a book "choose your own adventure". Books I read when I was young.

Correctly. The idea is taken from there. But if you read through a book, the story is not so exciting. Due to the limited number of pages. When a child first you may already feel interesting. But if you re-read the book now then becomes no fun anymore because you don't get anything with the amount of 100-200 pages. 

Have you ever heard of game books?  When you were boy or girl, did you like reading game books? I think you've heard even happy to read it.

Gamebooks are sometimes informally called choose your own adventure books or CYOA which is also the name of the Choose Your Own Adventure series published byBantam Books. Gamebook - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Gamebook - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A gamebook is a work of fiction that allows the reader to participate in the story by making effective choices. The narrative branches along various paths through the use of numbered paragraphs or pages.
Lihat di en.wikipedia.org
Lihat preview menurut Yahoo

Bantam Books with the Choose Your Own Adventure 

series has produced more than 250 million US 

dollars. While I offer you more powerful than the Choose 

Your Own Adventure. Because of what? Because the 

story that I made much more interesting than the stories 

created by the authors of Bantam Books. You will not get anything just to 100-200 pages. While the story that I created is made up of tens of thousands of articles with millions of choices in it.

For comparison are the books published with the theme "choose your own adventure" produces more than 250 million copies worldwide. If the average price of a book for 5 USD, the industry has produced more than 1.5 billion USD. But unfortunately this industry has been abandoned because the reader begins to feel bored. The last book was published entitled "The Gorillas of Uganda (prev." Search for the Mountain Gorillas ")". And this book was published in 2013.

Based on the above, then you are faced with two choices. Are you interested in reading my story is? Or you are not interested at all. The choice is in your hands.
If you are interested then spread widely disseminated this article to your family, friends, neighbors, and relatives. You can also distribute it on facebook, twitter, goggle +, or other social media that this article be viral in the world. By doing so it is a new entertainment industry has been created.

Its creator named Richard Nata.

The full articles that talks about this: 
1. A Story That Surprised The World.  http://richardnata.blogspot.com/2015/03/a-story-that-surprised-world.html
  
WHY DO I NEED STARTUP FUNDS FROM INVESTORS? I NEED A LOT OF FUNDS FROM INVESTORS BECAUSE I HAVE TO LOOKING FOR EXPERT PROGRAMMERS(IT).BECAUSE THE DATA IS HANDLED IS VERY LARGE, IT MAY HAVE TO WEAR SOME PROGRAMMERS(IT).

I CAN NOT WEAR SOME FREELANCE PROGRAMMER BECAUSE THE DATA MUST BE MONITORED CONTINUOUSLY FROM VIRUSES, MALWARE, SPAM, AND OTHERS.

IN ADDITION FUNDS FROM INVESTORS IS ALSO USED TO BUY SERVERS WITH VERY LARGE CAPACITY. FUNDS ARE ALSO USED TO PAY EMPLOYEE SALARIES AND OPERATIONAL COSTS OF THE COMPANY.

FUNDS CAN ALSO BE USED FOR ADVERTISING AND OTHER MARKETING STRATEGIES.FUNDS CAN ALSO BE USED TO ADVERTISE MY STARTUP AND OTHER MARKETING STRATEGIES.

IF I GET A VERY LARGE FUND, THE PART OF THE FUNDS USED TO TRANSLATE THE STORY INTO VARIOUS LANGUAGES.With more and more languages, the more readers we get.
WITH MORE AND MORE READERS, THE MORE REVENUE WE GET. 

AS AN INVESTOR THEN YOU DO NOT HAVE TO FEEL ANXIOUS ABOUT YOUR FUNDS. BECAUSE YOUR FUNDS WILL NEVER BE LOST BECAUSE IN 3-5 YEARS YOU HAVE RETURNED THE FUNDS COUPLED WITH PROFIT.
THIS BUSINESS IS ONE AND THE ONLY ONE IN THE WORLD.

If we can make a good story, so that the readers will 

come again and again for further reading the story then 

our earnings will continue to grow and will never 

diminish. This is due to new readers who continued  to 

arrive, while long remained loyal readers become our 

customers.

So that the number of our readers will continue to 

multiply over time. With the increasing number of loyal 

readership then automatically the amount of income we 

will also grow larger every year. The same thing 

happened in yahoo, google, facebook, twitter, linkedin, 

and others when they still startup.

Deuteronomy {28:13} And the LORD shall make thee the 

head, and not the tail; and thou shalt be above only, and 

thou shalt not be beneath; if that thou hearken unto the commandments of the LORD thy God, which I command thee this day, to observe and to do [them: ]

Try to imagine this. If I give a very unique story. It was the first time in the world. But the world already know this story even liked it. Because the world love the game books. While the story that I made is the development of game books.
Do you Believe if I dare say if I will succeed because my story will be famous all over the world as Harry Potter?
I believe it. Not because I was the author of the story, but because of the story that I made is unique and the only one in the world. 
Income from my startup :
1. Ads. With millions of unique visitors, the price of the ads will be expensive.
2. Affiliate marketing. In addition to advertising, we are also able to put up some banner from affiliate marketing.
3. Contribution of the readers. If you have a million readers and every reader to pay one US dollar per year then you will get the income of one million US dollars per year. 
If you have a million readers and every reader to pay one US dollar per month then you will get as much revenue twelve million US dollars per year.
4. Books and Comics. After getting hundreds of thousands to the millions of readers of the story will be made in books and the form of a picture story (comics).
5. Movies. If we have a good story with millions of readers then quickly we will be offered to make a film based on the story.
6. Merchandise related to characters. After the movies there will be made an offer for the sale of goods related to the characters.
7. Sales. With millions of email that we have collected from our readers so we can sell anything to them.
    Each income (1-7) worth millions to tens of millions of US dollars. 
    Because each income (1-7) worth millions to tens of millions of US dollars. Then in 10-20 years into the future, AI will be earning hundreds of million USD annually.
So how long do you think my story that I made could gather a thousand readers? Ten thousand readers? One hundred thousand readers? A million readers? Five million readers? Ten million readers? More than ten million readers?
But to get all of it of course takes time, can not be instant. In addition, it takes hard work, big funds and placement of the right people in the right positions.
By advertising, viral marketing, strong marketing strategies and SEO then a million readers can be done in less than a year. Ten million readers can be done in two to three years.
This is the marketing strategy of my startup.
When hundreds of thousands or millions of readers already liked my story then they have to pay to enjoy the story that I made.
If you are a visionary then you will think like this.
With the help of my great name in the world of business, my expertise in marketing, advertising, marketing by mouth, viral marketing, then collecting a million readers to ten million readers will be easy to obtain. Is not that right?
The question now is what if people like my story as they like Harry Potter? You will get tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of email addresses from readers. With that much email, we can sell anything to the readers.
Since April 2013, Wikipedia has around 26 million articles in 285 languages are written by 39 million registered users and a variety of anonymous people who are not known from other parts of the world.  Web ranked by Alexa, Wikipedia is a famous website number 6 which has been visited by 12% of all Internet users with 80 million visitors every month and it is only from the calculation of America.

resource : http://www.tahupedia.com/content/show/136/Sejarah-dan-Asal-Mula-Wikipedia

If no Wikipedia then need hundreds of thousands to millions of books required to make 26 million articles in 285 languages into books.

With the Wikipedia then people started to leave to read a book or books to seek knowledge about a subject or many subjects.

The same thing will happen. Read a story in a book or books to be abandoned. Read a story with millions of choices on the web or blog is far more interesting than reading a book or books. 

So what happens next? In 10-20 years ahead then read a story in a book to be abandoned. Otherwise my startup will grow and continue to develop into a new entertainment industry.

New entertainment industry, where I was a forerunner startup will continue to evolve. 
Therefore, in 10-20 years into the future, my startup will be earning hundreds of million USD annually.

So do not delay. Invest your money immediately to my startup. Take A Look. There are so many advantages if you want to invest in my startup.
WHY YOU SHOULD INVEST YOUR MONEY RIGHT NOW? .
IF YOU INVEST YOUR FUNDS IN ONE, TWO OR THREE YEARS INTO THE FUTURE, YOU MAY BE TOO LATE.
BECAUSE IN 1-3 YEARS INTO THE FUTURE THEN I'VE GOT THE FUNDS. THE FUNDS CAN COME FROM SOME INVESTORS, LOANS FROM BANKS OR FROM ADVERTISEMENTS POSTED ON MY BLOG.

IF I'VE GOT A LARGE AMOUNT OF FUNDS THEN I'VE NO NEED OF YOUR FUNDS. SO INVEST NOW OR NOT AT ALL.

My BLOG started to be written January 11, 2015. TODAY, MAY 30, 2015, THE NUMBER OF CLICKS HAS REACHED 56,750. SO FAR SO GOOD.

If I get big funds from investors then with a quick story that I wrote will spread throughout the world.

So I got acceleration because I can put ads in a large variety of media such as Google AdWords, Facebook, and others. I also can perform a variety of other marketing strategies.
If I do not get funding from investors then my story would still spread throughout the world. But with a longer time, Slow but sure.

So either I get funding from investors or not, the story that I wrote will remain spread throughout the world. Ha ... 7x

So don't worry, be happy.

My advice to you is you should think whether the data that I have provided to you makes sense or not .
If my data reasonable then immediately invest your funds as soon as possible.

Then we discuss how we plan further cooperation.
Thank you.
Lord Jesus bless you.
Amen
P.S. The offer letter I gave also to the hedge funds and 

venture capital and other major companies 

in the entire 

world. So who is fast then he will get it.


P.P.S. In addition, there is one more thing I 

want to tell you. If a story can generate tens 

of millions of US dollars, then what if made 


many stories? Then why do not you make 2, 3 or many stories? You will get hundreds of million USD annually. 

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